Thursday, March 11, 2010

Just a few words about stats

For the past six months I've been reporting sales stats on this blog for the areas of Belleair Beach/Sand Key, Indian Rocks Beach and Indian Shores. This data is pulled from our area Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and only accessible to active real estate licensees who pay membership fees for the access.

Many buyers are aware they can "search the MLS" through various websites, what they may not be aware of is that not all data is carried through and there is more than ample room for errors in the system.

One indicator that is reviewed each month is the Days on Market (DOM). This should give an idea of how long properties are actually on the market, with a shorter time frame seeming to indicate market improvement. Most people assume this figure is the number of days from the time a property is listed for sale until the day of closing, but this is incorrect.
The DOM numbers from the MLS can be very misleading.

Example: A recent closed sale was reported as a short sale and showed 117 days on the market- not bad! However, when the data was analyzed further, it was 117 days from the date of the listing until the contract was accepted. It took another 90 days for the transaction to close.
In my professional opinion, this should have been reflected as 207 days that the property was actually on the market.
Bottom line: not everything is the way it seems!

Another item of frustration is the Sales Price to List Price ratio. For the past 6 months, if one is reading the results as they are available from MLS, the average is 90%. The average person would assume that means a house originally listed for $200,000 eventually sold for $180,000.
This is another number that can be misleading, as the Sales Price to List Price ratio is based only on FINAL list price. If a property was originally listed for $325,000 but reduced eventually to $200,000 and then sold for $180,000, it is reported as a 90% Sales Price to List Price ratio, even though a true analysis would report this as a 55% ratio, indicating a possible "great deal".

However, having said that, I do not feel that list price on short sales is a reliable indicator as there does not seem to be a uniform method used to set such list prices, it seems in some cases to be at the whimsy of the listing agent. Some properties are priced very low in order to generate interest, with little to no regard for actual current market values.

In closing, I want to encourage prospective buyers studying the market to make contact with a real estate professional for a truer picture of real estate activity in a specific area.

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